Before I face the challenge of completing my 2025 French Tax Return, there are a few outstanding conundrums I am battling with that I would like to be enlightened on in the meantime.

For the avoidance of any doubt I believe there is climate change and that in the last few decades we have seen an unprecedented increase in global temperatures.

Just taking a few basic facts though, why do we believe that mankind, without recourse to mass suicide, can in any meaningful way influence a global temperature change.

I can reconcile the need to replace finite resources of fossil fuels within 80 years for oil and gas or 120 years for coal, but why these notional zero carbon targets causing self-inflicted economic existential threats to our well-being. 

It is estimated that the transitional cost of achieving net zero by 2050, on yet unproven technologies, will cost $9.2tr annually (European Central Bank), or expressed another way half of global corporate profits or a quarter of all tax revenues. Chancellor try and balance the public accounts with those dynamics at work. What is the Return on Capital Employed and what percentage of fossil reserves are saved? Nobody has articulated that one!

Global temperatures have varied gradually over the period from 500ad to 2000ad. The first 500 years the average temperature rose by 0.4°C and then over the next 1200 years to 1700ad fell by -0.8°C from its peak. Today global temperatures have risen again to +0.5°C above the starting point 500ad. The spectacular rise didn’t start from the commencement of the Industrial Revolution in 1850 but around 1980. Why the sudden change so late in the day? Incidentally a doubling of CO² concentration from 400ppm to 800ppm will only add less than 0.2°C according the Stefan Boltzmann formula.

The source of all our energy is from the sun. It represents 98% of the mass of our entire universe and 92% of heat radiation comes from the surface at around 5,500°C. The surface is much cooler than the core which is 15m°C. Oddly the sun’s corona defies the second law of thermal dynamics as it temperature can range between 1m to 2m°C! We don’t why. As a lay person what makes us believe we can monitor such tiny temperature variations when you have those huge dynamics in play? I will ignore solar cycles of between 4 to 21 years, occurring at random, for the purpose of simplicity.

In passing how is the UK getting on with the practicalities of harnessing and producing a major portion of our future energy needs from nuclear fusion? We know the technology works and we can produce a core temperature ten times the sun at its core at minute environmental risk compared with other sources. The UK came out of the ITER European programme in 2023 because of apparently BREXIT. We have other institutions like NATO that can operate outside the EU so why did we default to this position. Have we something better in play? ITER is an international programme involving seven members of which the EU is only one. Japan and China seem quite happy with it! So if someone can resolve those conundrums perhaps they can help me with my French tax return.